Northern DiamondsversusSunrisers

2 Jun 2024 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers won by 4 wickets

Northern Diamonds20.0 overs123/8 Sunrisers20.0 overs126/6 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 57%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · Sunrisers is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 28% to 84% during the match (Sunrisers: 16% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.3: EA Burns to G Scrivens, four by G Scrivens. Sunrisers up from 21% to 44%.
2nd inns 19.5: EA Burns to G Scrivens, four by G Scrivens. Sunrisers up from 30% to 67%.
2nd inns 19.6: EA Burns to G Scrivens, four by G Scrivens. Sunrisers up from 67% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.