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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2026 · Men
26 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 76%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Sierra Leone: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM Turaystumped · Irfan Karim · Shem Ngoche 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Irfan Karim · b Shem Ngoche | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| J Bangurabowled · Sachin Gill 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 185.71 |
| R Cokercaught · Rakep Patel · Vishil Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b Vishil Patel | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| A Gblabowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| S Contehcaught · Peter Langat · Vishil Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Peter Langat · b Vishil Patel | 10 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 58.82 |
| L Lamin |
| bowled · b Vishil Patel |
| 12 |
| 23 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 52.17 |
| A Turaycaught · Rakep Patel · Francis Mutua 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b Francis Mutua | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| G Sesaynot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 25 | 1 | 0 | 104.00 |
|---|
| C Bahcaught · Rakep Patel · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b Sachin Gill | 9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mohamed Turaybowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| AB Kamaranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachin Gill0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Peter Langat0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Francis Mutua0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (EM Turay, 2.4) · 2-24 (J Bangura, 3.1) · 3-24 (A Gbla, 3.2) · 4-37 (R Coker, 6.1) · 5-47 (S Conteh, 8.4) · 6-56 (A Turay, 11.1) · 7-62 (L Lamin, 12.1) · 8-90 (C Bah, 18.1) · 9-90 (Mohamed Turay, 18.3)
Recorded target: 136 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 25/3 |
| 5 | 8 | 33/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 37/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 38/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 40/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 48/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 53/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 56/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 62/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 65/7 |
| 14 | 8 | 73/7 |
| 15 | 4 | 77/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 81/7 |
| 17 | 6 | 87/7 |
| 18 | 3 | 90/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 92/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 97/9 |
Vishil Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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