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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
18 Jan 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 31%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Rohit Sharma · Harshit Rana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Harshit Rana | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Henry Nichollsbowled · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arshdeep Singh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Will Youngcaught · Ravindra Jadeja · Harshit Rana5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ravindra Jadeja · b Harshit Rana | 30 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 73.17 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Kuldeep Yadav · Mohammed Siraj 15 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Kuldeep Yadav · b Mohammed Siraj | 137 | 131 | 15 | 3 | 104.58 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · KL Rahul · Arshdeep Singh 9 fours · 3 sixes |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 8% to 99% during the match (India: 1% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · KL Rahul · b Arshdeep Singh |
| 106 |
| 88 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 120.45 |
| Michael Bracewellnot out 1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 28* | 18 | 1 | 3 | 155.56 |
|---|
| Mitchell Haylbw · Kuldeep Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkescaught · Kuldeep Yadav · Arshdeep Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kuldeep Yadav · b Arshdeep Singh | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Kris Clarkebowled · Harshit Rana 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220.00 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 3 | 6.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 84 | 3 | 8.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 6.63 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 6.83 | 0 | 1 |
1-5 (Henry Nicholls, 0.4) · 2-5 (Devon Conway, 1.1) · 3-58 (Will Young, 12.1) · 4-277 (Glenn Phillips, 43.1) · 5-283 (Daryl Mitchell, 44.1) · 6-286 (Mitchell Hay, 45.2) · 7-304 (Zakary Foulkes, 47.1) · 8-327 (Kris Clarke, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 64/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 71/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 84/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 92/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 101/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 106/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 108/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 117/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 119/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 125/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 131/3 |
| 28 | 10 | 141/3 |
| 29 | 11 | 152/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 159/3 |
| 31 | 10 | 169/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 177/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 183/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 187/3 |
| 35 | 10 | 197/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 201/3 |
| 37 | 15 | 216/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 221/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 225/3 |
| 40 | 13 | 238/3 |
| 41 | 19 | 257/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 266/3 |
| 43 | 11 | 277/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 283/4 |
| 45 | 2 | 285/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 293/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 304/6 |
| 48 | 8 | 312/7 |
| 49 | 15 | 327/8 |
| 50 | 10 | 337/8 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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