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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
18 Jan 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 31%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Kris Clarke · Zakary Foulkes2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kris Clarke · b Zakary Foulkes | 11 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 84.62 |
 Shubman Gillbowled · Kyle Jamieson4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Jamieson | 23 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 127.78 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Daryl Mitchell · Kris Clarke10 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Kris Clarke | 124 | 108 | 10 | 3 | 114.81 |
 Shreyas Iyercaught · Zakary Foulkes · Kris Clarke0 fours · 0 sixes |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 8% to 99% during the match (India: 1% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Zakary Foulkes · b Kris Clarke |
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.00 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Glenn Phillips · Jayden Lennox0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Jayden Lennox | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Will Young · Kris Clarke2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Kris Clarke | 53 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 92.98 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught · Will Young · Jayden Lennox0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Jayden Lennox | 12 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Harshit Ranacaught · Henry Nicholls · Zakary Foulkes 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Henry Nicholls · b Zakary Foulkes | 52 | 43 | 4 | 4 | 120.93 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajcaught · Mitchell Hay · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Zakary Foulkes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Kuldeep Yadavrun out · Glenn Phillips · Kris Clarke1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Glenn Phillips | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singhnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 6.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 77 | 3 | 8.56 | 2 | 1 |
| Kris Clarke0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Mitchell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (Rohit Sharma, 4.0) · 2-45 (Shubman Gill, 6.4) · 3-68 (Shreyas Iyer, 11.2) · 4-71 (KL Rahul, 12.5) · 5-159 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 27.3) · 6-178 (Ravindra Jadeja, 32.1) · 7-277 (Harshit Rana, 43.4) · 8-277 (Mohammed Siraj, 43.5) · 9-292 (Virat Kohli, 45.4) · 10-296 (Kuldeep Yadav, 46.0)
Recorded target: 338 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 40/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 66/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 70/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 71/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 78/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 83/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 88/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 93/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 98/4 |
| 20 | 10 | 108/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 113/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 118/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 122/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 127/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 135/4 |
| 26 | 12 | 147/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 157/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 160/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 30 | 6 | 170/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 175/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 179/6 |
| 34 | 2 | 181/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 187/6 |
| 36 | 8 | 195/6 |
| 37 | 11 | 206/6 |
| 38 | 13 | 219/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 221/6 |
| 40 | 9 | 230/6 |
| 41 | 10 | 240/6 |
| 42 | 9 | 249/6 |
| 43 | 21 | 270/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 277/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 284/8 |
| 46 | 12 | 296/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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