South AfricaversusPakistan

31 Oct 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 9 wickets

South Africa19.2 overs110/10 Pakistan13.1 overs112/1 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

41%South Africa59%Pakistan

Why

Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than South Africa (1,617 vs 1,593 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Pakistan: 60% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Salman Mirza to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Pakistan up from 61% to 75%.
1.6: Naseem Shah to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Pakistan up from 68% to 78%.
7.3: Faheem Ashraf to D Brevis, D Brevis out. Pakistan up from 86% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa110/10 Pakistan112/1

Innings 1

South Africa

110/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Reeza Hendricksbowled · Salman Mirza 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Salman Mirza	0	2	0	0	0.00
Quinton de Kockcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Naseem Shah	7	6	1	0	116.67
Tony de Zorzicaught · Abrar Ahmed · Salman Mirza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Abrar Ahmed · b Salman Mirza	7	10	0	0	70.00
Dewald Breviscaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Fahim Ashraf 0 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Fahim Ashraf	25	16	0	3	156.25

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Salman Mirza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	1	0
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1	1
Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75	0	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0	0
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	23	4	6.90	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	10	12/2
3	3	15/3
4	7	22/3
5	1	23/4
6	8	31/4
7	11	42/4
8	11	53/5
9	5	58/5
10	8	66/6
11	3	69/6
12	4	73/7
13	3	76/7
14	9	85/8
15	1	86/8
16	8	94/8
17	4	98/8
18	2	100/8
19	10	110/9
20	0	110/10

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