SamoaversusPapua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Samoa (1,508 vs 1,432 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Samoa started on 38%; Samoa batted first.

Samoa's chances ranged from 9% to 56% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 45% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 13.3: SF Tiai to A Vala, A Vala out. Samoa up from 19% to 39%.
2. 2nd inns 16.2: CK Jasmat to Aue Oru, Aue Oru out. Samoa up from 18% to 38%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: SM Nash to A Nao, four by A Nao. Papua New Guinea up from 63% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.