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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Region Final · 2025/26 · Men
28 Sept 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 62%; Namibia batted first.
Namibia's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Malan Krugercaught · Vincent Adewoye · Isaac Okpe1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vincent Adewoye · b Isaac Okpe | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jan Frylinckstumped · Sulaimon Runsewe · Isaac Danladi 15 fours · 6 sixes | stumped · Sulaimon Runsewe · b Isaac Danladi | 134 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 206.15 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · P Useni · Isaac Danladi 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · P Useni · b Isaac Danladi | 51 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 188.89 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · C Udekwe · Isaac Danladi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Udekwe · b Isaac Danladi | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| JJ Smitcaught · R Abdulkareem · Isaac Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · R Abdulkareem · b Isaac Okpe |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Isaac Danladi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Isaac Danladi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Zane Greennot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 6 | 1 | 1 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 13.67 | 4 | 1 |
| C Udekwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 11.50 | 1 | 1 |
| R Abdulkareem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 14.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Adewoye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Danladi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 7.33 | 2 | 0 |
1-53 (Malan Kruger, 5.0) · 2-185 (Jan Frylinck, 15.5) · 3-205 (Gerhard Erasmus, 17.1) · 4-206 (Louren Steenkamp, 17.3) · 5-208 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 18.0) · 6-208 (JJ Smit, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 19 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 15 | 53/1 |
| 6 | 18 | 71/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 76/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 86/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 96/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 104/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 117/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 126/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 140/1 |
| 14 | 21 | 161/1 |
| 15 | 19 | 180/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 185/2 |
| 17 | 20 | 205/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 208/5 |
| 19 | 12 | 220/6 |
| 20 | 15 | 235/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
