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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
7 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Maldives started on 27%; Maldives batted first.
Maldives's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Namgay Thinleybowled · Ibrahim Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Hassan | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| JN Dorjirun out · Umar Adam · Azyan Farhath 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Umar Adam | 30 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 96.77 |
| Tenjin Rabgeybowled · Ibrahim Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Hassan | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorjilbw · Nazwan Ismail 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nazwan Ismail | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| S Lodaybowled · Ibrahim Rizan 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Rizan | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 118.75 |
| Thinley Jamtshocaught · Nazwan Ismail · Ibrahim Rizan0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Nazwan Ismail · b Ibrahim Rizan |
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Tashi Phuntshobowled · Azyan Farhath 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Azyan Farhath | 18 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 138.46 |
|---|
| Ngawang Thinleylbw · Azyan Farhath 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Azyan Farhath | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| T Wangchuknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Manoj Adhikaricaught · Ibrahim Rizan · Ibrahim Hassan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b Ibrahim Hassan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Sonam Yesheycaught · Ibrahim Rizan · Ibrahim Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b Ibrahim Hassan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Umar Adam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Ishmath0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Nazwan Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Rizan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Azyan Farhath0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 2 | 1 |
1-2 (Namgay Thinley, 1.0) · 2-6 (Tenjin Rabgey, 2.1) · 3-33 (Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, 6.3) · 4-61 (JN Dorji, 10.1) · 5-66 (S Loday, 11.5) · 6-72 (Thinley Jamtsho, 13.1) · 7-73 (Ngawang Thinley, 14.1) · 8-94 (Tashi Phuntsho, 16.4) · 9-105 (Manoj Adhikari, 18.1) · 10-105 (Sonam Yeshey, 18.2)
Recorded target: 138 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 29/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 47/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 60/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 64/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 67/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 72/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 73/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 77/7 |
| 16 | 5 | 82/7 |
| 17 | 15 | 97/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 105/8 |
| 19 | 0 | 105/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.