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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
16 Jul 2026 · ODI
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 66%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Jos Buttler · Will Jacks1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Will Jacks | 26 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 55.32 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 31 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 103.33 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Adil Rashid · Jofra Archer8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jofra Archer | 65 | 66 | 8 | 0 | 98.48 |
 Ishan Kishancaught and bowled · Sam Curran0 fours · 0 sixes |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 86% during the match (England: 14% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Sam Curran |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 12.50 |
 Shreyas Iyercaught · Jos Buttler · Gus Atkinson5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Gus Atkinson | 66 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 92.96 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarcaught · Jos Buttler · Saqib Mahmood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Saqib Mahmood | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Axar Patelcaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Shivam Dubecaught and bowled · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gurnoor Brarcaught · Gus Atkinson · Saqib Mahmood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gus Atkinson · b Saqib Mahmood | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahnot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 20* | 13 | 3 | 1 | 153.85 |
|---|
| Prasidh Krishnabowled · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 4.70 | 3 | 0 |
 Saqib Mahmood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 52 | 2 | 5.78 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 5.56 | 4 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 3.83 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
1-44 (Shubman Gill, 7.4) · 2-104 (Rohit Sharma, 17.5) · 3-111 (Ishan Kishan, 20.3) · 4-178 (Virat Kohli, 31.4) · 5-181 (Washington Sundar, 32.4) · 6-193 (Axar Patel, 35.4) · 7-193 (Shivam Dube, 35.5) · 8-210 (Gurnoor Brar, 40.2) · 9-233 (Shreyas Iyer, 43.3) · 10-233 (Prasidh Krishna, 44.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 42/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 44/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 10 | 11 | 61/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 64/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 73/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 81/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 84/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 91/1 |
| 16 | 12 | 103/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 103/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 104/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 105/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 111/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 118/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 120/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 123/3 |
| 25 | 10 | 133/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 140/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 149/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 155/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 160/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 168/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 177/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 179/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 181/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 188/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 191/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 193/7 |
| 37 | 1 | 194/7 |
| 38 | 7 | 201/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 205/7 |
| 40 | 5 | 210/7 |
| 41 | 0 | 210/8 |
| 42 | 4 | 214/8 |
| 43 | 18 | 232/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 233/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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