South AfricaversusNew Zealand

25 Mar 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 33 runs

South Africa20.0 overs187/4 New Zealand20.0 overs154/8 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

42%South Africa58%New Zealand

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and South Africa won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than New Zealand (1,693 vs 1,686 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

3.4: ZGF Foulkes to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. New Zealand up from 58% to 68%.
2nd inns 1.3: PWA Mulder to KD Clarke, KD Clarke out. South Africa up from 53% to 64%.
2nd inns 5.4: OEG Baartman to D Cleaver, D Cleaver out. South Africa up from 55% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa187/4 New Zealand154/8

Innings 2

New Zealand

154/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Katene Clarkecaught · Connor Esterhuizen · Wiaan Mulder 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b Wiaan Mulder	2	4	0	0	50.00
Tim Robinsonrun out · Connor Esterhuizen, Jason Smith · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Connor Esterhuizen, Jason Smith	25	20	1	0	125.00
Dane Cleavercaught · Jason Smith · Ottniel Baartman 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jason Smith · b Ottniel Baartman	22	17	3	0	129.41
Nick Kellybowled · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Keshav Maharaj	14	18	1	0	77.78
Bevon Jacobscaught · Dian Forrester · Ottniel Baartman 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Dian Forrester · b Ottniel Baartman	36	19	2

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0
Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	2	9.33	0
George Linde0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	4
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	1
Prenelan Subrayen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	0
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	35	1	11.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	8	16/1
3	3	19/1
4	17	36/1
5	6	42/1
6	4	46/2
7	5	51/2
8	7	58/2
9	4	62/3
10	3	65/3
11	11	76/4
12	6	82/4
13	8	90/4
14	6	96/4
15	20	116/4
16	9	125/5
17	2	127/5
18	14	141/5
19	8	149/7
20	5	154/8

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