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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024 · Men
21 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Malawi more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 65%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 53%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Kansonkhorun out · Ts'episo Chaoana · Lebona Leokaoke 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ts'episo Chaoana | 29 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 76.32 |
| G Kansonkhocaught · Omar Hussain · Waseem Yaqoob 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Omar Hussain · b Waseem Yaqoob | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 135.71 |
| Sami Sohaillbw · Ts'episo Chaoana 3 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Ts'episo Chaoana | 64 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 139.13 |
| A Limdawalacaught · Maaz Khan · V Jayant 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maaz Khan · b V Jayant | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 92.31 |
| MA Baignot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| M Choambanot out0 fours · 0 sixes |
| not out |
| 3* |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 150.00 |
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Lebona Leokaoke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Waseem Yaqoob0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Lefulere Monanthane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| V Jayant0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Maaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| LM Gabriel0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 4 | 0 |
1-30 (G Kansonkho, 5.3) · 2-69 (D Kansonkho, 11.1) · 3-118 (A Limdawala, 17.0) · 4-142 (Sami Sohail, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 52/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 10 | 68/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 14 | 15 | 97/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 105/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 112/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 118/3 |
| 18 | 9 | 127/3 |
| 19 | 13 | 140/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 145/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.