NetherlandsversusSouth Africa

8 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

South Africa won by 4 wickets

Netherlands20.0 overs103/9 South Africa18.5 overs106/6 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

57%Netherlands43%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than South Africa (1,548 vs 1,501 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 54%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 2% to 69% during the match (South Africa: 31% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: VJ Kingma to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Netherlands up from 31% to 49%.
2nd inns 4.3: VJ Kingma to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. Netherlands up from 41% to 67%.
2nd inns 17.2: LV van Beek to DA Miller, six by DA Miller. South Africa up from 59% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands103/9 South Africa106/6

Innings 2

South Africa

106/618.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Reeza Hendricksbowled · Logan van Beek 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Logan van Beek	3	10	0	0	30.00
Quinton de Kockrun out · Max O'Dowd, Paul van Meekeren · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Max O'Dowd, Paul van Meekeren	0	0	0	0	—
Aiden Markramcaught · Scott Edwards · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Vivian Kingma	0	3	0	0	0.00
Tristan Stubbscaught · Logan van Beek · Bas de Leede 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Logan van Beek

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Vivian Kingma1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	1	0
Logan van Beek1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	2	5.25	0	0
Paul van Meekeren1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	0	3.25	1	0
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.5	0	34	1	8.87	0	1
Tim Pringle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0	0
Vikramjit Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	0	3/2
3	5	8/3
4	4	12/3
5	0	12/4
6	4	16/4
7	5	21/4
8	1	22/4
9	7	29/4
10	3	32/4
11	11	43/4
12	11	54/4
13	2	56/4
14	11	67/4
15	8	75/4
16	0	75/4
17	4	79/5
18	9	88/6
19	18	106/6

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