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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
9 May 2026 · T20
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 69%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Vanuatu: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Rasucaught · S Sugaya-Slater · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Sugaya-Slater · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
| Patrick Matautaavastumped · A Patmore · Abdul Samad (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · A Patmore · b Abdul Samad (2) | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
| Andrew Mansalecaught · B Ito-Davis · Abdul Samad (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Ito-Davis · b Abdul Samad (2) | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| Nalin Nipikocaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b S Ravichandran | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
| JP Kaltapaunot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 37* | 38 | 2 | 1 | 97.37 |
| Clement Tommybowled · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Charlie Hara-Hinze |
| 14 |
| 22 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 63.64 |
| W Wotucaught · S Ravichandran · B Ito-Davis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ravichandran · b B Ito-Davis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| JD Allannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Samad (2)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sugaya-Slater0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| B Ito-Davis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 5 | 0 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Joshua Rasu, 3.3) · 2-13 (Patrick Matautaava, 4.3) · 3-14 (Andrew Mansale, 6.1) · 4-31 (Nalin Nipiko, 10.4) · 5-61 (Clement Tommy, 16.1) · 6-74 (W Wotu, 17.1)
Recorded target: 124 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 14/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 15/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 21/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 24/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 28/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 33/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 39/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 43/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 51/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 57/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 17 | 13 | 74/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/6 |
| 19 | 8 | 87/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 93/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.