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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
13 Feb 2024 · Test
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Brandlbw · William O’Rourke 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b William O’Rourke | 25 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 65.79 |
| Clyde Fortuincaught · Glenn Phillips · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Matt Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Raynard van Tondercaught · Tom Latham · Neil Wagner 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Neil Wagner | 32 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 45.07 |
| Zubayr Hamzacaught · MJ Santner · Rachin Ravindra 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MJ Santner · b Rachin Ravindra | 20 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 20.20 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Will Young · Rachin Ravindra7 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Will Young · b Rachin Ravindra |
| 39 |
| 102 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 38.24 |
| Keegan Petersencaught · Tim Southee · Rachin Ravindra 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Southee · b Rachin Ravindra | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Ruan de Swardtbowled · William O’Rourke 9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 64 | 156 | 9 | 0 | 41.03 |
|---|
| Shaun von Bergbowled · William O’Rourke 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b William O’Rourke | 38 | 89 | 7 | 0 | 42.70 |
|---|
| Dane Piedtcaught · Tom Blundell · Tim Southee 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Tim Southee | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Tshepo Morekinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 26.67 |
|---|
 Dane Patersoncaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 2.52 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Henry5 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 2.59 | 1 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.2 | 4 | 59 | 4 | 3.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Neil Wagner6 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 21.0 | 8 | 33 | 3 | 1.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Clyde Fortuin, 1.1) · 2-40 (Neil Brand, 12.2) · 3-63 (Raynard van Tonder, 25.3) · 4-99 (Zubayr Hamza, 45.1) · 5-101 (Keegan Petersen, 47.1) · 6-150 (David Bedingham, 62.0) · 7-227 (Shaun von Berg, 91.4) · 8-234 (Dane Piedt, 94.1) · 9-242 (Ruan de Swardt, 97.1) · 10-242 (Dane Paterson, 97.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 40/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 41/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 44/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 57/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 58/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 62/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 63/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 63/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 63/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 64/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 72/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 73/3 |
| 31 | 8 | 81/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 81/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 81/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 84/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 36 | 0 | 86/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 40 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 41 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 42 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 43 | 4 | 92/3 |
| 44 | 1 | 93/3 |
| 45 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 47 | 0 | 101/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 102/5 |
| 49 | 7 | 109/5 |
| 50 | 4 | 113/5 |
| 51 | 1 | 114/5 |
| 52 | 0 | 114/5 |
| 53 | 4 | 118/5 |
| 54 | 1 | 119/5 |
| 55 | 4 | 123/5 |
| 56 | 4 | 127/5 |
| 57 | 0 | 127/5 |
| 58 | 5 | 132/5 |
| 59 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 60 | 1 | 137/5 |
| 61 | 5 | 142/5 |
| 62 | 8 | 150/6 |
| 63 | 0 | 150/6 |
| 64 | 0 | 150/6 |
| 65 | 1 | 151/6 |
| 66 | 1 | 152/6 |
| 67 | 2 | 154/6 |
| 68 | 0 | 154/6 |
| 69 | 0 | 154/6 |
| 70 | 3 | 157/6 |
| 71 | 4 | 161/6 |
| 72 | 0 | 161/6 |
| 73 | 10 | 171/6 |
| 74 | 1 | 172/6 |
| 75 | 4 | 176/6 |
| 76 | 6 | 182/6 |
| 77 | 2 | 184/6 |
| 78 | 1 | 185/6 |
| 79 | 4 | 189/6 |
| 80 | 5 | 194/6 |
| 81 | 7 | 201/6 |
| 82 | 6 | 207/6 |
| 83 | 4 | 211/6 |
| 84 | 1 | 212/6 |
| 85 | 3 | 215/6 |
| 86 | 4 | 219/6 |
| 87 | 0 | 219/6 |
| 88 | 0 | 219/6 |
| 89 | 1 | 220/6 |
| 90 | 0 | 220/6 |
| 91 | 4 | 224/6 |
| 92 | 7 | 231/7 |
| 93 | 1 | 232/7 |
| 94 | 2 | 234/7 |
| 95 | 0 | 234/8 |
| 96 | 4 | 238/8 |
| 97 | 4 | 242/8 |
| 98 | 0 | 242/10 |
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Neil Wagner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dane Paterson: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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