New ZealandversusAustralia

24 Sept 2024 · T20

Allan Border Field, Brisbane · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 5 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs146/6 Australia19.1 overs148/5 Allan Border Field, Brisbane ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

11%New Zealand89%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,703 vs 1,471 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 10%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 1% to 24% during the match (Australia: 76% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.1: G Wareham to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Australia up from 80% to 85%.
2nd inns 3.1: EJ Carson to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. New Zealand up from 10% to 15%.
2nd inns 6.6: AC Kerr to AJ Healy, AJ Healy out. New Zealand up from 12% to 18%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand146/6 Australia148/5

Innings 1

New Zealand

146/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batesbowled · Georgia Wareham 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Georgia Wareham	19	17	3	0	111.76
Georgia Plimmerbowled · Georgia Wareham 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Georgia Wareham	53	48	5	1	110.42
Amelia Kerrbowled · Ashleigh Gardner 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner	40	36	5	0	111.11
Sophie Devinecaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland	5	7

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0
Tayla Vlaeminck0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	9
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	1
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	10	11/0
3	9	20/0
4	5	25/0
5	9	34/0
6	11	45/0
7	4	49/1
8	3	52/1
9	2	54/1
10	8	62/1
11	13	75/1
12	7	82/1
13	9	91/1
14	5	96/1
15	9	105/1
16	8	113/1
17	6	119/2
18	11	130/3
19	2	132/5
20	14	146/6

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