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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
16 Nov 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 29%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Kamindu Mendis · Jeffrey Vandersay8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 55 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 122.22 |
| Haseebullah Khancaught · Eshan Malinga · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eshan Malinga · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Jeffrey Vandersay4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 34 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 65.38 |
 Mohammad Rizwannot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 61* |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Pakistan: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 92 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 66.30 |
| Salman Ali Aghalbw · Jeffrey Vandersay 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Hussain Talatnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 42* | 57 | 1 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pramod Madushan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 4 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 3.83 | 1 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 1 |
 Janith Liyanage1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Haseebullah Khan, 4.0) · 2-82 (Fakhar Zaman, 15.2) · 3-101 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 20.3) · 4-115 (Salman Ali Agha, 24.3)
Recorded target: 212 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 53/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 63/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 66/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 74/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 78/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 90/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 100/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 102/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 103/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 107/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 114/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 115/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 124/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 127/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 132/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 134/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 139/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 141/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 144/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 151/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 153/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 158/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 167/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 175/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 179/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 185/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 187/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 194/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 197/4 |
| 44 | 12 | 209/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 215/4 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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