South AfricaversusAustralia

3 Feb 2024 · ODI

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

South Africa31.3 overs105/9 Australia19.0 overs106/2 Adelaide Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

13%South Africa87%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,877 vs 1,605 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 5 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 5 and South Africa won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 11%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 12% during the match (Australia: 88% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: ML Schutt to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Australia up from 88% to 92%.
3.5: KJ Garth to A Bosch, A Bosch out. Australia up from 92% to 95%.
7.4: EA Perry to T Brits, T Brits out. Australia up from 95% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa105/9 Australia106/2

Innings 1

South Africa

105/931.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Georgia Wareham · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Wareham · b Megan Schutt	4	12	0	0	33.33
Tazmin Britsbowled · Ellyse Perry 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ellyse Perry	1	18	0	0	5.56
Anne Boschcaught · Beth Mooney · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney · b Kim Garth	0	6	0	0	0.00
Suné Luusbowled · Annabel Sutherland 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Annabel Sutherland	6	21	1	0	28.57
Marizanne Kapp

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	4	1	1	0.20	0
Kim Garth0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	18	2	3.00	4
Ellyse Perry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	8	1	4.00	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	1	7.33	1
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	23	0	3.83	0
Ashleigh Gardner1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	1	12	1	2.40	1
Alana King1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.3	1	19	3	4.22	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	3	4/0
3	0	4/1
4	1	5/2
5	0	5/2
6	3	8/2
7	0	8/2
8	1	9/3
9	0	9/3
10	8	17/3
11	9	26/3
12	5	31/3
13	3	34/4
14	2	36/4
15	10	46/4
16	2	48/4
17	0	48/4
18	8	56/4
19	2	58/5
20	3	61/5
21	4	65/5
22	3	68/5
23	3	71/5
24	3	74/5
25	3	77/5
26	13	90/5
27	3	93/5
28	1	94/6
29	3	97/6
30	0	97/7
31	6	103/8
32	2	105/9

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