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West Indies tour of England · 2025 · Men
29 May 2025 · ODI
Edgbaston · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 54%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 47%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Brandon King · Alzarri Joseph7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Alzarri Joseph | 37 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 154.17 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Roston Chase · Justin Greaves6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Justin Greaves | 60 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 125.00 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 57 | 65 | 5 | 0 | 87.69 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Keacy Carty · Jayden Seales5 fours · 3 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Keacy Carty · b Jayden Seales |
| 58 |
| 45 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 128.89 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Matthew Forde · Jayden Seales3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Jayden Seales | 37 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 115.63 |
|---|
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales 8 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 82 | 53 | 8 | 5 | 154.72 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Shai Hope · Justin Greaves5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Justin Greaves | 39 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 162.50 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Roston Chase · Alzarri Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Alzarri Joseph | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 10 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 11.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Jayden Seales0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 84 | 4 | 9.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 2 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 6.83 | 0 | 1 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 5.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 2 | 6.80 | 4 | 0 |
1-64 (Jamie Smith, 7.0) · 2-137 (Ben Duckett, 19.1) · 3-188 (Joe Root, 27.0) · 4-221 (Harry Brook, 31.0) · 5-287 (Jos Buttler, 40.2) · 6-385 (Will Jacks, 47.3) · 7-391 (Jamie Overton, 48.2) · 8-393 (Jacob Bethell, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 34/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 59/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 75/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 90/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 92/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 99/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 106/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 113/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 119/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 124/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 126/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 132/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 137/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 140/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 145/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 148/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 152/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 157/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 162/2 |
| 26 | 16 | 178/2 |
| 27 | 10 | 188/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 194/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 197/3 |
| 30 | 15 | 212/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 221/4 |
| 32 | 10 | 231/4 |
| 33 | 9 | 240/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 242/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 247/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 252/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 257/4 |
| 38 | 13 | 270/4 |
| 39 | 12 | 282/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 283/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 288/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 293/5 |
| 43 | 14 | 307/5 |
| 44 | 15 | 322/5 |
| 45 | 14 | 336/5 |
| 46 | 19 | 355/5 |
| 47 | 24 | 379/5 |
| 48 | 12 | 391/6 |
| 49 | 2 | 393/7 |
| 50 | 7 | 400/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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