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Photo: Will Noakes
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West Indies tour of England · 2025 · Men
29 May 2025 · ODI
Edgbaston · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 54%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 47%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Jos Buttler · Brydon Carse 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Brydon Carse | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Justin Greavescaught · Harry Brook · Saqib Mahmood 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Saqib Mahmood | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Harry Brook · Saqib Mahmood 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Saqib Mahmood | 22 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 84.62 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Brydon Carse · Saqib Mahmood4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Saqib Mahmood | 25 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 119.05 |
| J Andrewcaught · Harry Brook · Jacob Bethell 0 fours · 1 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Harry Brook · b Jacob Bethell |
| 8 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 114.29 |
| Amir Jangoocaught · Harry Brook · Adil Rashid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Adil Rashid | 14 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 56.00 |
|---|
 Roston Chasecaught · Will Jacks · Jamie Overton1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jamie Overton | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Saqib Mahmood · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saqib Mahmood · b Jamie Overton | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Harry Brook · Jamie Overton 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Jamie Overton | 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 163.64 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 12 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 63.16 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealesnot out 2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 29* | 14 | 2 | 3 | 207.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saqib Mahmood1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 32 | 3 | 4.57 | 3 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.2 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 4.13 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.2 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 9.38 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Justin Greaves, 2.3) · 2-17 (Brandon King, 3.5) · 3-53 (Keacy Carty, 9.2) · 4-66 (Shai Hope, 11.3) · 5-79 (J Andrew, 14.1) · 6-97 (Roston Chase, 17.3) · 7-102 (Amir Jangoo, 18.5) · 8-102 (Matthew Forde, 19.1) · 9-124 (Gudakesh Motie, 21.5) · 10-162 (Alzarri Joseph, 26.2)
Recorded target: 401 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 52/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 66/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 78/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 85/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 91/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 97/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 100/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 102/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 107/8 |
| 21 | 16 | 123/8 |
| 22 | 1 | 124/9 |
| 23 | 9 | 133/9 |
| 24 | 6 | 139/9 |
| 25 | 17 | 156/9 |
| 26 | 6 | 162/9 |
| 27 | 0 | 162/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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