MalaysiaversusPhilippines

9 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 114 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs201/9 Philippines20.0 overs87/9 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

73%Malaysia27%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Philippines (1,617 vs 1,449 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 70%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Philippines: 0% to 34%).

Biggest swings

1.4: J Tuffin to Muhammad Haziq Aiman, six by Muhammad Haziq Aiman. Malaysia up from 66% to 71%.
4.1: Rhys Burinaga to Muhammad Haziq Aiman, six by Muhammad Haziq Aiman. Malaysia up from 78% to 82%.
4.3: Rhys Burinaga to Muhammad Haziq Aiman, six by Muhammad Haziq Aiman. Malaysia up from 81% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia201/9 Philippines87/9

Innings 1

Malaysia

201/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muhammad Haziq Aimanrun out · M Podosky, JEA Doctora · JEA Doctora 11 fours · 8 sixes	run out · M Podosky, JEA Doctora	113	58	11	8	194.83
Zubaidi Zulkiflestumped · Grant Russ · ASF Sirah 4 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Grant Russ · b ASF Sirah	32	24	4	1	133.33
Syed Azizcaught · Daniel Smith · JEA Doctora 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Daniel Smith · b JEA Doctora	15	14	1	1	107.14
Sharvin Muniandycaught · J Tuffin · Rhys Burinaga 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · J Tuffin · b Rhys Burinaga	20	14	1	1	142.86
Virandeep Singhcaught · ASF Sirah · JEA Doctora 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · ASF Sirah · b JEA Doctora	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Rhys Burinaga1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	33	4	8.25	0	0
J Tuffin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	0	7.67	1	0
A Donovan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	0	0
Daniel Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	31	0	15.50	1	0
ASF Sirah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	36	1	9.00	0	0
N Tanner0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	4	0
Henry Tyler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	20	0	20.00	0	0
JEA Doctora0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	30	3	10.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	9	9/0
3	12	21/0
4	8	29/0
5	19	48/0
6	6	54/0
7	15	69/0
8	8	77/0
9	11	88/0
10	7	95/1
11	5	100/1
12	20	120/1
13	16	136/1
14	11	147/1
15	9	156/2
16	10	166/2
17	5	171/4
18	5	176/5
19	16	192/6
20	9	201/9

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