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Pakistan tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
4 Nov 2024 · ODI
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 22%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 1% to 34% during the match (Australia: 66% to 99%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Shortcaught · Saim Ayub · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Shaheen Afridi | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Irfan Khan · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Irfan Khan · b Naseem Shah | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Saim Ayub · Haris Rauf6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Haris Rauf | 44 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 95.65 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Irfan Khan · Shaheen Afridi4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Irfan Khan · b Shaheen Afridi | 49 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 116.67 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Irfan Khan · b Haris Rauf |
| 16 |
| 13 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 123.08 |
| Aaron Hardiebowled · Mohammad Hasnain 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Hasnain | 10 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 52.63 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottrun out · Salman Ali Agha, Shaheen Afridi · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Salman Ali Agha, Shaheen Afridi | 13 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminsnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 31 | 4 | 0 | 103.23 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 17 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 5.32 | 5 | 0 |
| Mohammad Hasnain0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 7.12 | 2 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 3 | 7.44 | 10 | 0 |
1-19 (Matthew Short, 2.2) · 2-28 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 4.0) · 3-113 (Steve Smith, 16.3) · 4-139 (Josh Inglis, 19.4) · 5-139 (Marnus Labuschagne, 20.1) · 6-139 (Glenn Maxwell, 20.2) · 7-155 (Aaron Hardie, 25.1) · 8-185 (Sean Abbott, 29.4)
Recorded target: 204 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 54/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 59/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 68/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 78/2 |
| 14 | 15 | 93/2 |
| 15 | 12 | 105/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 107/2 |
| 17 | 10 | 117/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 123/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 130/3 |
| 20 | 9 | 139/4 |
| 21 | 8 | 147/6 |
| 22 | 1 | 148/6 |
| 23 | 3 | 151/6 |
| 24 | 3 | 154/6 |
| 25 | 1 | 155/6 |
| 26 | 12 | 167/7 |
| 27 | 3 | 170/7 |
| 28 | 3 | 173/7 |
| 29 | 8 | 181/7 |
| 30 | 4 | 185/8 |
| 31 | 11 | 196/8 |
| 32 | 1 | 197/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 199/8 |
| 34 | 5 | 204/8 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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