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ICC Women's T20I Challenge Trophy · 2026 · Women
26 Apr 2026 · T20
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 35%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (United States of America: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samjhana Khadkacaught · Ritu Singh · Maahi Madhavan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ritu Singh · b Maahi Madhavan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Bindu Rawalcaught · T Chopra · AI Chudasama0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Chopra · b AI Chudasama | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Puja Mahatocaught · T Chopra · Ritu Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Chopra · b Ritu Singh | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 29.63 |
| R Poddarnot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 51* | 51 | 5 | 1 | 100.00 |
 Kabita Joshicaught · Maahi Madhavan · Ritu Singh0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Maahi Madhavan · b Ritu Singh |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
| I Barmalbw · S Kambalapalli 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Kambalapalli | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| K Kunwarcaught · CR Pagydyala · Maahi Madhavan 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CR Pagydyala · b Maahi Madhavan | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| M Upadhayaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maahi Madhavan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| L Shetty0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| AI Chudasama1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| JL Aras0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Kambalapalli0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Samjhana Khadka, 0.1) · 2-5 (Bindu Rawal, 4.4) · 3-20 (Puja Mahato, 10.0) · 4-27 (Kabita Joshi, 12.1) · 5-53 (I Barma, 16.1) · 6-64 (K Kunwar, 17.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 3/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 5/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 8/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 15/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 18/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 20/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 21/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 27/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 38/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 44/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 47/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 53/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 56/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 65/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 77/6 |
| 20 | 9 | 86/6 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
