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ICC Women's T20I Challenge Trophy · 2026 · Women
26 Apr 2026 · T20
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 35%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (United States of America: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Kambalapallicaught · I Barma · Puja Mahato 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · I Barma · b Puja Mahato | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 123.53 |
| CR Pagydyalacaught · Riya Sharma · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Riya Sharma · b M Upadhayay | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Isani Vaghelanot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 35* | 29 | 5 | 1 | 120.69 |
| Pooja Ganeshcaught · Roma Thapa · I Barma 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roma Thapa · b I Barma | 20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 250.00 |
| Gargi Bhoglenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 10 | 3 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Upadhayay1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kunwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Puja Mahato0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Bist0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Riya Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.82 | 0 | 0 |
| I Barma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (CR Pagydyala, 2.3) · 2-25 (S Kambalapalli, 5.4) · 3-60 (Pooja Ganesh, 8.5)
Recorded target: 87 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 13 | 46/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 55/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 60/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 74/3 |
| 12 | 15 | 89/3 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
