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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2024 · Women
31 May 2024 · T20
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 54%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Eseigbebowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 |
| E Sandybowled · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Concy Aweko | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| P Agboyalbw · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Concy Aweko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| L Pietyrun out · Rita Musamali · S Walaza 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Rita Musamali | 16 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 160.00 |
| S Sundaycaught · Kevin Awino · L Anyait 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kevin Awino · b L Anyait | 36 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 76.60 |
| S Etimbowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi1 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi |
| 9 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 69.23 |
| A Akhigbenot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 2 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
| L Udehcaught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · L Anyait 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · b L Anyait | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| C Chukwuonyelbw · Janet Mbabazi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Janet Mbabazi | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| A Adekunlenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Walaza1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Concy Aweko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Janet Mbabazi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| L Anyait0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 7.58 | 2 | 0 |
| Rita Musamali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (E Sandy, 1.1) · 2-2 (P Agboya, 1.2) · 3-18 (L Piety, 4.2) · 4-24 (F Eseigbe, 8.0) · 5-48 (S Etim, 13.5) · 6-71 (S Sunday, 16.3) · 7-71 (L Udeh, 16.5) · 8-75 (C Chukwuonye, 18.1)
Recorded target: 98 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/2 |
| 4 | 12 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 20/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 24/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 25/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 26/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 33/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 39/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 42/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 52/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 64/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 67/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 75/7 |
| 18 | 0 | 75/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 79/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 86/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.