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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
28 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Spain started on 75%; Spain batted first.
Spain's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Finland: 0% to 26%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghulam Abbas Buttcaught · Mohammad Ihsan · C Rumistrzewicz 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Ihsan · b C Rumistrzewicz | 27 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 117.39 |
| VS Padhaalbowled · Raja Adeel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Raja Adeel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Atif Rasheedcaught · Muhammad Yasin · C Rumistrzewicz 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Yasin · b C Rumistrzewicz | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 73.33 |
| Ziaur Rehmannot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 37* | 41 | 3 | 0 | 90.24 |
| NM Salonenlbw · C Rumistrzewicz 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b C Rumistrzewicz | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Jordan O'Brien |
| bowled · b C Rumistrzewicz |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Amjad Sherbowled · C Rumistrzewicz 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b C Rumistrzewicz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Akhil Arjunancaught · D Doyle-Calle · Yasir Ali 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Doyle-Calle · b Yasir Ali | 22 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 122.22 |
|---|
| Faheem Nellancherinot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 8 | 1 | 1 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasir Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Raja Adeel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Shafat Ali Syed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 2 | 0 |
| C Rumistrzewicz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| LA Burns0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hamza Dar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (VS Padhaal, 1.2) · 2-39 (Ghulam Abbas Butt, 6.1) · 3-42 (Atif Rasheed, 6.5) · 4-51 (NM Salonen, 8.5) · 5-57 (Jordan O'Brien, 10.4) · 6-57 (Amjad Sher, 10.5) · 7-95 (Akhil Arjunan, 17.0)
Recorded target: 173 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 46/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 52/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 56/4 |
| 11 | 1 | 57/6 |
| 12 | 7 | 64/6 |
| 13 | 8 | 72/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 77/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 81/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 83/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 95/7 |
| 18 | 9 | 104/7 |
| 19 | 13 | 117/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 126/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.