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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
17 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 51%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquecaught and bowled · Aaliyah Alleyne3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 42 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Shemaine Campbelle · Chinelle Henry 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shemaine Campbelle · b Chinelle Henry | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Sharmin Akhterbowled · Aaliyah Alleyne10 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 67 | 79 | 10 | 0 | 84.81 |
 Nigar Sultanabowled · Aaliyah Alleyne0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 5 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (West Indies: 24% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Ritu Monibowled · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Afy Fletcher | 15 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 57.69 |
|---|
| Shorna Aktercaught · Ashmini Munisar · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashmini Munisar · b Afy Fletcher | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatuncaught · Zaida James · Hayley Matthews0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zaida James · b Hayley Matthews | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
 Nahida Aktercaught · Chinelle Henry · Aaliyah Alleyne4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 25 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 64.10 |
|---|
| Jannatul Ferduscaught · Chinelle Henry · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Hayley Matthews | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khannot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 23* | 20 | 5 | 0 | 115.00 |
|---|
 Marufa Akternot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 22 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chinelle Henry1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 5.43 | 1 | 0 |
| Zaida James0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3.79 | 2 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.27 | 5 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 7 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Ashmini Munisar1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 39 | 4 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Sobhana Mostary, 4.2) · 2-134 (Fargana Hoque, 27.3) · 3-135 (Sharmin Akhter, 27.5) · 4-142 (Nigar Sultana, 31.2) · 5-159 (Shorna Akter, 34.4) · 6-165 (Ritu Moni, 36.3) · 7-177 (Fahima Khatun, 39.5) · 8-183 (Jannatul Ferdus, 44.0) · 9-214 (Nahida Akter, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 16 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 49/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 56/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 64/1 |
| 16 | 14 | 78/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 83/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 86/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 90/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 22 | 10 | 110/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 115/1 |
| 24 | 0 | 115/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 120/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 124/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 130/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 135/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 139/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 141/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 144/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 148/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 152/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 160/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 165/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 168/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 171/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 177/7 |
| 41 | 0 | 177/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 180/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 182/7 |
| 44 | 1 | 183/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 184/8 |
| 46 | 6 | 190/8 |
| 47 | 7 | 197/8 |
| 48 | 2 | 199/8 |
| 49 | 11 | 210/8 |
| 50 | 17 | 227/9 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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