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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
17 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 51%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qiana Josephcaught · Nigar Sultana · Rabeya Khan 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Rabeya Khan | 31 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 79.49 |
| Zaida Jamesbowled · Jannatul Ferdus 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jannatul Ferdus | 9 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 45.00 |
4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fahima Khatun | 24 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 75.00 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marufa Akter | 36 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 70.59 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (West Indies: 24% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sobhana Mostary · b Marufa Akter |
| 33 |
| 45 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 73.33 |
5 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 51* | 48 | 5 | 2 | 106.25 |
|---|
| Shabika Gajnabicaught · Jannatul Ferdus · Ritu Moni 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jannatul Ferdus · b Ritu Moni | 20 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynecaught · Marufa Akter · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marufa Akter · b Nahida Akter | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 4.22 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jannatul Ferdus0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 3 | 1 |
| 8.0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rabeya Khan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 4.29 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Zaida James, 6.0) · 2-60 (Qiana Joseph, 13.1) · 3-74 (Shemaine Campbelle, 16.3) · 4-140 (Hayley Matthews, 29.4) · 5-147 (Stafanie Taylor, 31.5) · 6-197 (Shabika Gajnabi, 42.3) · 7-227 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 45.3)
Recorded target: 228 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 14 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 43/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 67/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 18 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 87/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 102/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 111/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 120/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 125/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 128/3 |
| 29 | 11 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 141/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 145/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 149/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 153/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 155/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 157/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 163/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 166/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 173/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 176/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 179/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 186/5 |
| 42 | 11 | 197/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 203/6 |
| 44 | 15 | 218/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 226/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 228/7 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.