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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
5 Oct 2026 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 20%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patellbw · Aayan Afzal Khan 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 27 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 122.73 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Aayan Afzal Khan · Muhammad Shahdad 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aayan Afzal Khan · b Muhammad Shahdad | 55 | 62 | 3 | 0 | 88.71 |
| Shehan Jayasuriyacaught · Ali Naseer · Ibrar Ahmad 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Naseer · b Ibrar Ahmad | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Adeeb Usmani · Ali Naseer 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Adeeb Usmani · b Ali Naseer | 56 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 90.32 |
| Milind Kumarnot out 7 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 116* | 84 | 7 | 5 | 138.10 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 1% to 79% during the match (United States of America: 21% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Shubham Ranjanenot out2 fours · 3 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 57* |
| 49 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 116.33 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveer1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 5.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrar Ahmad0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 82 | 1 | 9.11 | 4 | 1 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 1 | 7.20 | 5 | 0 |
| Ali Naseer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 6.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Smit Patel, 5.4) · 2-60 (Shehan Jayasuriya, 9.4) · 3-134 (Monank Patel, 23.3) · 4-172 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 30.3)
Recorded target: 331 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 53/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 61/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 79/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 89/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 100/2 |
| 21 | 10 | 110/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 118/2 |
| 23 | 15 | 133/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 139/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 146/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 150/3 |
| 28 | 8 | 158/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 164/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 172/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 175/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 182/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 189/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 198/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 202/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 210/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 213/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 218/4 |
| 39 | 13 | 231/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 238/4 |
| 41 | 13 | 251/4 |
| 42 | 10 | 261/4 |
| 43 | 11 | 272/4 |
| 44 | 14 | 286/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 290/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 298/4 |
| 47 | 5 | 303/4 |
| 48 | 16 | 319/4 |
| 49 | 13 | 332/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
