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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
15 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 29%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nattaya Boochathamrun out · Gaby Lewis · Louise Little2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gaby Lewis | 19 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 54.29 |
 Chanida Sutthiruangcaught · Cara Murray · KJ McCartney2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cara Murray · b KJ McCartney | 16 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 45.71 |
 Nannapat Koncharoenkaibowled · Cara Murray2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 21 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Natthakan Chantam |
Ireland's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Gaby Lewis · b KJ McCartney |
| 8 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
 Naruemol Chaiwaibowled · Sophie MacMahon4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie MacMahon | 37 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 94.87 |
|---|
| Phannita Mayacaught · Leah Paul · Louise Little 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Leah Paul · b Louise Little | 43 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 70.49 |
|---|
| S Khiaotocaught · Leah Paul · Louise Little 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Leah Paul · b Louise Little | 59 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 118.00 |
|---|
 Onnicha Kamchomphubowled · Louise Little0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Louise Little | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| T Putthawongcaught · Orla Prendergast · Louise Little 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Louise Little | 22 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
| S Chaturongrattanabowled · Louise Little 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Louise Little | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Suleeporn Laominot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 19 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 4.17 | 1 | 0 |
| Ava Canning0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Sophie MacMahon1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Louise Little0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 3.05 | 1 | 0 |
| KJ McCartney0 maidens · 10 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 73 | 2 | 7.30 | 10 | 2 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 2 | 1 |
1-34 (Nattaya Boochatham, 10.1) · 2-45 (Chanida Sutthiruang, 12.2) · 3-65 (Natthakan Chantam, 16.2) · 4-76 (Nannapat Koncharoenkai, 18.0) · 5-166 (Naruemol Chaiwai, 33.4) · 6-166 (Phannita Maya, 34.1) · 7-182 (Onnicha Kamchomphu, 36.2) · 8-253 (T Putthawong, 47.3) · 9-253 (S Chaturongrattana, 47.4) · 10-259 (S Khiaoto, 49.1)
Recorded target: 306 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 33/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 54/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 63/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 70/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 76/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 79/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 87/4 |
| 21 | 12 | 99/4 |
| 22 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 23 | 6 | 105/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 110/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 114/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 118/4 |
| 29 | 8 | 126/4 |
| 30 | 14 | 140/4 |
| 31 | 9 | 149/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 153/4 |
| 33 | 11 | 164/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 166/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 172/6 |
| 36 | 9 | 181/6 |
| 37 | 3 | 184/7 |
| 38 | 7 | 191/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 195/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 198/7 |
| 41 | 9 | 207/7 |
| 42 | 10 | 217/7 |
| 43 | 8 | 225/7 |
| 44 | 7 | 232/7 |
| 45 | 10 | 242/7 |
| 46 | 1 | 243/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 251/7 |
| 48 | 2 | 253/9 |
| 49 | 6 | 259/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 259/10 |
Naruemol Chaiwai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nannapat Koncharoenkai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nattaya Boochatham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chanida Sutthiruang: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Onnicha Kamchomphu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Natthakan Chantam: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suleeporn Laomi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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