Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

OtagoversusCentral Districts

31 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 7 wickets

Otago20.0 overs154/8 Central Districts18.5 overs158/3 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Otago started on 44%; Otago batted first.

Otago’s chance of winning (%) · Central Districts is the rest

Otago's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Central Districts: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: AR Schaw to JT Todd, JT Todd out. Central Districts up from 51% to 63%.
2nd inns 1.4: M Clarke to JCT Boyle, JCT Boyle out. Otago up from 29% to 40%.
2nd inns 15.6: D Foxcroft to TC Bruce, four by TC Bruce. Central Districts up from 76% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Otago chose to bat
Player of the match: Tom Bruce
match referees: SB O'Connor
reserve umpires: JT Blunt
tv umpires: N Louw
umpires: JM Dempsey, KS Jagannathan

Match history & source

On 31 Dec 2024, Otago played Central Districts at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Central Districts won by 7 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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