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Photo: Benchill
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Women's Super Smash · 2025/26 · Women
18 Jan 2026 · T20
University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photographRecorded result
Otago started on 54%; Otago batted first.
Otago's chances ranged from 2% to 77% during the match (Northern Districts: 23% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 18 Jan 2026, Otago played Northern Districts at University Oval, Dunedin. Recorded result: Northern Districts won by 5 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.