GloucestershireversusNorthamptonshire

1 Jul 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 8 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs184/2 Northamptonshire17.2 overs187/2 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 43%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Northamptonshire: 24% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.6: JJG Sales to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Northamptonshire up from 47% to 56%.
19.6: GLS Scrimshaw to Miles Hammond, 1 run to Miles Hammond. Northamptonshire up from 37% to 45%.
2nd inns 8.4: DJ Ahmed to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Gloucestershire up from 18% to 29%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire184/2 Northamptonshire187/2

Innings 1