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Mdina Cup · 2024 · Men
9 May 2024 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 59%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Malta: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Georgecaught · Usman Khan · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Zaheer Zahiri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zeeshan Khancaught · Kamran Ahmadzai · Dawood Ahmadzai 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamran Ahmadzai · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 116.67 |
| SSM Stanislauscaught · C Roberts · Zaheer Zahiri 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · C Roberts · b Zaheer Zahiri | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 188.89 |
| Jaspal Singhcaught · C Roberts · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Roberts · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 53.33 |
| VP Thamotharamlbw · S Stanikzay 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Stanikzay | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| bowled · b Dawood Ahmadzai |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 11.11 |
| Fanyan Mughallbw · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bikram Aroranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| C Sudarsananlbw · Dawood Ahmadzai 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Washeem Abbascaught · L Canessane · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Canessane · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| J Shajubowled · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zaheer Zahiri | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaheer Zahiri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.74 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamran Ahmadzai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| C Roberts0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 5.25 | 5 | 0 |
| S Stanikzay1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (B George, 0.1) · 2-27 (SSM Stanislaus, 2.5) · 3-46 (Zeeshan Khan, 6.2) · 4-53 (VP Thamotharam, 8.0) · 5-57 (Jaspal Singh, 8.4) · 6-57 (Fanyan Mughal, 8.5) · 7-58 (DR Patankar, 10.3) · 8-78 (C Sudarsanan, 12.5) · 9-78 (Washeem Abbas, 13.0) · 10-84 (J Shaju, 14.5)
Recorded target: 171 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 15 | 19/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 28/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 31/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 46/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 53/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 57/6 |
| 10 | 0 | 57/6 |
| 11 | 4 | 61/7 |
| 12 | 9 | 70/7 |
| 13 | 8 | 78/9 |
| 14 | 2 | 80/9 |
| 15 | 4 | 84/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.