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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
26 Dec 2024 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Konstaslbw · Ravindra Jadeja6 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Ravindra Jadeja | 60 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 92.31 |
 Usman Khawajacaught · KL Rahul · Jasprit Bumrah6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Jasprit Bumrah | 57 | 121 | 6 | 0 | 47.11 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Virat Kohli · Washington Sundar7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Washington Sundar | 72 | 145 | 7 | 0 | 49.66 |
| bowled · b Akash Deep |
| 140 |
| 197 |
| 13 |
| 3 |
| 71.07 |
 Travis Headbowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Rishabh Pant · Akash Deep0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Akash Deep | 31 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 75.61 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · Ravindra Jadeja7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · b Ravindra Jadeja | 49 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ravindra Jadeja | 15 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 41.67 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonlbw · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jasprit Bumrah | 13 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 72.22 |
|---|
 Scott Bolandnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 36 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 10 · noballs: 6 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah9 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 28.4 | 9 | 99 | 4 | 3.45 | 0 | 3 |
 Mohammed Siraj3 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 3 | 122 | 0 | 5.30 | 10 | 0 |
| Akash Deep8 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 26.0 | 8 | 94 | 2 | 3.62 | 0 | 2 |
 Ravindra Jadeja4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 4 | 78 | 3 | 3.39 | 0 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.0 | 2 | 49 | 1 | 3.27 | 0 | 1 |
1-89 (Sam Konstas, 19.2) · 2-154 (Usman Khawaja, 44.1) · 3-237 (Marnus Labuschagne, 65.1) · 4-240 (Travis Head, 66.3) · 5-246 (Mitchell Marsh, 69.0) · 6-299 (Alex Carey, 82.1) · 7-411 (Pat Cummins, 104.1) · 8-455 (Mitchell Starc, 113.3) · 9-455 (Steve Smith, 114.1) · 10-474 (Nathan Lyon, 122.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 7 | 14 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 32/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 37/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 44/0 |
| 11 | 18 | 62/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 65/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 69/0 |
| 14 | 8 | 77/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 78/0 |
| 16 | 5 | 83/0 |
| 17 | 0 | 83/0 |
| 18 | 3 | 86/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 89/0 |
| 20 | 1 | 90/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 92/1 |
| 22 | 11 | 103/1 |
| 23 | 0 | 103/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 109/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 112/1 |
| 26 | 0 | 112/1 |
| 27 | 0 | 112/1 |
| 28 | 0 | 112/1 |
| 29 | 0 | 112/1 |
| 30 | 4 | 116/1 |
| 31 | 2 | 118/1 |
| 32 | 1 | 119/1 |
| 33 | 0 | 119/1 |
| 34 | 8 | 127/1 |
| 35 | 7 | 134/1 |
| 36 | 2 | 136/1 |
| 37 | 1 | 137/1 |
| 38 | 1 | 138/1 |
| 39 | 2 | 140/1 |
| 40 | 0 | 140/1 |
| 41 | 3 | 143/1 |
| 42 | 3 | 146/1 |
| 43 | 8 | 154/1 |
| 44 | 0 | 154/1 |
| 45 | 0 | 154/2 |
| 46 | 1 | 155/2 |
| 47 | 0 | 155/2 |
| 48 | 2 | 157/2 |
| 49 | 4 | 161/2 |
| 50 | 4 | 165/2 |
| 51 | 3 | 168/2 |
| 52 | 3 | 171/2 |
| 53 | 5 | 176/2 |
| 54 | 5 | 181/2 |
| 55 | 9 | 190/2 |
| 56 | 7 | 197/2 |
| 57 | 2 | 199/2 |
| 58 | 9 | 208/2 |
| 59 | 9 | 217/2 |
| 60 | 4 | 221/2 |
| 61 | 0 | 221/2 |
| 62 | 2 | 223/2 |
| 63 | 3 | 226/2 |
| 64 | 7 | 233/2 |
| 65 | 4 | 237/2 |
| 66 | 0 | 237/3 |
| 67 | 3 | 240/4 |
| 68 | 1 | 241/4 |
| 69 | 5 | 246/5 |
| 70 | 2 | 248/5 |
| 71 | 6 | 254/5 |
| 72 | 4 | 258/5 |
| 73 | 11 | 269/5 |
| 74 | 7 | 276/5 |
| 75 | 3 | 279/5 |
| 76 | 3 | 282/5 |
| 77 | 4 | 286/5 |
| 78 | 2 | 288/5 |
| 79 | 3 | 291/5 |
| 80 | 0 | 291/5 |
| 81 | 1 | 292/5 |
| 82 | 7 | 299/5 |
| 83 | 1 | 300/6 |
| 84 | 3 | 303/6 |
| 85 | 5 | 308/6 |
| 86 | 3 | 311/6 |
| 87 | 9 | 320/6 |
| 88 | 0 | 320/6 |
| 89 | 5 | 325/6 |
| 90 | 7 | 332/6 |
| 91 | 0 | 332/6 |
| 92 | 10 | 342/6 |
| 93 | 0 | 342/6 |
| 94 | 0 | 342/6 |
| 95 | 2 | 344/6 |
| 96 | 15 | 359/6 |
| 97 | 6 | 365/6 |
| 98 | 0 | 365/6 |
| 99 | 3 | 368/6 |
| 100 | 3 | 371/6 |
| 101 | 8 | 379/6 |
| 102 | 15 | 394/6 |
| 103 | 5 | 399/6 |
| 104 | 12 | 411/6 |
| 105 | 0 | 411/7 |
| 106 | 9 | 420/7 |
| 107 | 6 | 426/7 |
| 108 | 6 | 432/7 |
| 109 | 7 | 439/7 |
| 110 | 1 | 440/7 |
| 111 | 6 | 446/7 |
| 112 | 5 | 451/7 |
| 113 | 3 | 454/7 |
| 114 | 1 | 455/8 |
| 115 | 0 | 455/9 |
| 116 | 1 | 456/9 |
| 117 | 5 | 461/9 |
| 118 | 3 | 464/9 |
| 119 | 1 | 465/9 |
| 120 | 1 | 466/9 |
| 121 | 6 | 472/9 |
| 122 | 0 | 472/9 |
| 123 | 2 | 474/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Konstas: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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