St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusBarbados Tridents

10 Sept 2026 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Tridents won by 4 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs118/10 Barbados Tridents18.0 overs120/6 Kensington Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 48%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Tridents is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 1% to 48% during the match (Barbados Tridents: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: CJ Green to J Charles, J Charles out. Barbados Tridents up from 52% to 66%.
1.2: DR Sams to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. Barbados Tridents up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.6: JO Holder to ZN Carter, ZN Carter out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 17% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.