KuwaitversusMongolia

30 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 160 runs

Kuwait20.0 overs210/8 Mongolia18.3 overs50/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kuwait more likely to win

90%Kuwait10%Mongolia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kuwait rate stronger than Mongolia (1,569 vs 1,201 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kuwait started on 89%; Kuwait batted first.

Kuwait’s chance of winning (%) · Mongolia is the rest

Kuwait's chances ranged from 89% to 100% during the match (Mongolia: 0% to 11%).

Biggest swings

0.6: O Lutbayar to R Sandaruwan, six by R Sandaruwan. Kuwait up from 90% to 92%.
2.2: O Lutbayar to R Sandaruwan, six by R Sandaruwan. Kuwait up from 92% to 93%.
2.6: O Lutbayar to CV Anto, four by CV Anto. Kuwait up from 93% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kuwait210/8 Mongolia50/10

Innings 2

Mongolia

50/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mongolia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namsrai Bat-yalaltcaught · Nawaf Ahmed · Mohomad Aslam 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nawaf Ahmed · b Mohomad Aslam	5	16	1	0	31.25
S Natsagdorjcaught · Mohomad Aslam · Yasin Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohomad Aslam · b Yasin Patel	1	8	0	0	12.50
M Vivekanandanlbw · Mohomad Aslam 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mohomad Aslam	0	7	0	0	0.00
Gandemberel Ganboldbowled · Yasin Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Yasin Patel	0	7	0	0	0.00
N Naranbaatarbowled · Shiraz Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shiraz Khan	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ilyas Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	0	1.50	1
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	3
Mohomad Aslam1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	6	2	1.50	2
Shiraz Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	8	3	2.00	2
Nawaf Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	10	2	4.00	0
Nimish Lathief0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	1	2.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/0
3	2	10/0
4	0	10/1
5	1	11/2
6	1	12/3
7	1	13/4
8	2	15/4
9	2	17/6
10	1	18/6
11	1	19/6
12	8	27/6
13	5	32/6
14	3	35/6
15	1	36/7
16	3	39/7
17	8	47/8
18	2	49/9
19	1	50/10

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