ThunderversusCentral Sparks

14 Jun 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Sparks won by 8 wickets

Thunder20.0 overs146/6 Central Sparks20.0 overs150/2 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thunder started on 45%; Thunder batted first.

Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Central Sparks is the rest

Thunder's chances ranged from 5% to 80% during the match (Central Sparks: 21% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.6: S Ecclestone to AE Jones, six by AE Jones. Central Sparks up from 41% to 56%.
2nd inns 17.6: S Ecclestone to AE Jones, four by AE Jones. Central Sparks up from 79% to 94%.
2nd inns 19.5: PC Graham to AE Jones, four by AE Jones. Central Sparks up from 55% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.