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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
6 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 56%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoani Varestumped · Ellen Watson · Abtaha Maqsood 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ellen Watson · b Abtaha Maqsood | 30 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 52.63 |
| Brenda Taubowled · Katherine Fraser 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 25 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 65.79 |
| Tanya Rumabowled · Saskia Horley 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saskia Horley | 25 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 52.08 |
| Sibona Jimmylbw · Abtaha Maqsood 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abtaha Maqsood | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
| Pauke Siakalbw · Saskia Horley 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saskia Horley | 44 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 89.80 |
| K Frank |
Scotland's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 45%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Abbi Aitken · b Saskia Horley |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 133.33 |
| Vicky Araastumped · Ellen Watson · Abtaha Maqsood 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ellen Watson · b Abtaha Maqsood | 21 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
| HJ Thomascaught · G Fontenla · Saskia Horley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · G Fontenla · b Saskia Horley | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
| Isabel Toualbw · G Fontenla 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b G Fontenla | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Geua Tomlbw · Abtaha Maqsood 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abtaha Maqsood | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| V Burukanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 31 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 12 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 6.33 | 12 | 0 |
| G Fontenla0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.32 | 3 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 3.10 | 5 | 0 |
| Chloe Abel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Darcey Carter0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 4 | 3.70 | 3 | 0 |
| Saskia Horley1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-65 (Brenda Tau, 12.1) · 2-101 (Naoani Vare, 22.0) · 3-107 (Sibona Jimmy, 25.1) · 4-113 (Tanya Ruma, 27.0) · 5-123 (K Frank, 28.3) · 6-188 (Vicky Araa, 42.0) · 7-188 (Pauke Siaka, 42.1) · 8-193 (HJ Thomas, 44.5) · 9-196 (Geua Tom, 45.5) · 10-196 (Isabel Toua, 46.1)
Recorded target: 259 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 49/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 54/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 61/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 65/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 65/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 67/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 79/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 81/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 93/1 |
| 21 | 1 | 94/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 103/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 106/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 107/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 110/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 119/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 123/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 130/5 |
| 31 | 8 | 138/5 |
| 32 | 9 | 147/5 |
| 33 | 0 | 147/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 154/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 157/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 160/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 162/5 |
| 38 | 11 | 173/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 177/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 184/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 188/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 189/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 193/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 194/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 196/9 |
| 47 | 0 | 196/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.