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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
20 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 83%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Croatia: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Houghtoncaught and bowled · Julius Sumerauer 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Julius Sumerauer | 22 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 183.33 |
| CM Carrollcaught · Jonty Jenner · G Richardson 3 fours · 9 sixes | caught · Jonty Jenner · b G Richardson | 74 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 238.71 |
| Saghar Manzoorlbw · Julius Sumerauer 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Julius Sumerauer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| JR Newtoncaught · Julius Sumerauer · Zak Tribe 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Zak Tribe | 23 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 79.31 |
| Rashid Hashmicaught and bowled · Dominic Blampied 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dominic Blampied | 20 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 125.00 |
| caught · Patrick Gouge · b Dominic Blampied |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| DJ Hallrun out · Zak Tribe, Dominic Blampied · Dominic Blampied 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zak Tribe, Dominic Blampied | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Oliver Tilleycaught · Patrick Gouge · Zak Tribe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Patrick Gouge · b Zak Tribe | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| N Davidoviccaught · Nick Greenwood · Harrison Carlyon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nick Greenwood · b Harrison Carlyon | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| M Separovicbowled · Zak Tribe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zak Tribe | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Sajid Khan (2)not out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Blampied0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 10.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Carlyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 9.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 5 | 0 |
| G Richardson0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Zak Tribe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-57 (S Houghton, 3.4) · 2-57 (Saghar Manzoor, 3.5) · 3-116 (CM Carroll, 10.0) · 4-146 (Rashid Hashmi, 14.0) · 5-154 (JR Newton, 14.4) · 6-158 (A Razmilic, 15.4) · 7-163 (Oliver Tilley, 16.5) · 8-165 (DJ Hall, 17.1) · 9-171 (M Separovic, 18.5) · 10-171 (N Davidovic, 19.3)
Recorded target: 281 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 28 | 42/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 51/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 71/2 |
| 6 | 16 | 87/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 93/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 101/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 110/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 116/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 120/3 |
| 12 | 14 | 134/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 141/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 146/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 154/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 162/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 165/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 169/8 |
| 19 | 2 | 171/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 171/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.