BhutanversusBahrain

25 Feb 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 4 wickets

Bhutan16.5 overs91/10 Bahrain17.4 overs95/6 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

13%Bhutan87%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Bhutan (1,620 vs 1,402 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 5 and Bhutan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 12%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Bahrain: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Ali Dawood to Namgay Thinley, Namgay Thinley out. Bahrain up from 85% to 89%.
1.4: Abdul Majid Abbasi to Tshering Tashi, Tshering Tashi out. Bahrain up from 89% to 92%.
2.2: Ali Dawood to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Bahrain up from 91% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan91/10 Bahrain95/6

Innings 1

Bhutan

91/1016.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namgay Thinleycaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Ali Dawood 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Ali Dawood	7	4	1	0	175.00
Tshering Tashibowled · Abdul Majeed 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abdul Majeed	1	5	0	0	20.00
Tenjin Rabgeybowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ali Dawood	2	3	0	0	66.67
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · P Kurup · Muhammad Salman 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · P Kurup · b Muhammad Salman	16	8	2	1	200.00
Tashi Phuntshocaught and bowled · Asif Shaikh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Asif Shaikh	3	19	0	0	15.79

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Dawood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	1	11	4	3.88	0
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	1	7.25	0
Rizwan Butt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	1	2.00	1
Muhammad Salman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	0
Asif Shaikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	26	1	8.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/1
2	6	16/2
3	0	16/3
4	10	26/3
5	1	27/3
6	2	29/4
7	1	30/4
8	2	32/4
9	13	45/5
10	5	50/5
11	10	60/5
12	8	68/5
13	8	76/6
14	6	82/7
15	3	85/7
16	5	90/8
17	1	91/10

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