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New Zealand Women tour of England · 2026 · Women
10 May 2026 · ODI
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 18%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Lambcaught · Jess Kerr · Nensi Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Nensi Patel | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 48.39 |
| Jodi Grewcocklbw · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bree Illing | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Heather Knightlbw · Rosemary Mair3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rosemary Mair | 19 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 63.33 |
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Suzie Bates · Amelia Kerr 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Amelia Kerr | 59 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 85.51 |
| Freya Kemprun out · Rosemary Mair · Rosemary Mair 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rosemary Mair | 30 | 38 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 2% to 37% during the match (England: 63% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 78.95 |
 Amy Jonescaught · Jess Kerr · Rosemary Mair0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Rosemary Mair | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Danielle Gibsoncaught · Bree Illing · Amelia Kerr2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bree Illing · b Amelia Kerr | 19 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Charlie Deannot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 31* | 46 | 1 | 0 | 67.39 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellbowled · Rosemary Mair2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosemary Mair | 12 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
 Lauren Filerbowled · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Matilda Corteen-Colemannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 3.32 | 2 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair1 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 4.20 | 2 | 2 |
| Nensi Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.78 | 0 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
1-10 (Jodi Grewcock, 3.3) · 2-42 (Heather Knight, 11.5) · 3-42 (Emma Lamb, 12.2) · 4-110 (Freya Kemp, 26.0) · 5-115 (Amy Jones, 27.3) · 6-149 (Danielle Gibson, 33.0) · 7-160 (Maia Bouchier, 34.2) · 8-195 (Lauren Bell, 43.4) · 9-201 (Lauren Filer, 45.4)
Recorded target: 211 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 42/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 44/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 46/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 54/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 59/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 63/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 72/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 79/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 82/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 91/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 96/3 |
| 25 | 9 | 105/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 110/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 114/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 118/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 125/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 134/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 140/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 143/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 149/6 |
| 34 | 7 | 156/6 |
| 35 | 4 | 160/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 162/7 |
| 37 | 5 | 167/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 168/7 |
| 39 | 2 | 170/7 |
| 40 | 9 | 179/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 182/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 187/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 192/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 195/8 |
| 45 | 5 | 200/8 |
| 46 | 1 | 201/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 204/9 |
| 48 | 5 | 209/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 211/9 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Gibson: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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