BelgiumversusSerbia

10 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 64 runs

Belgium20.0 overs171/8 Serbia19.4 overs107/10 Svanholm Park, Brondby ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Belgium more likely to win

87%Belgium13%Serbia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Belgium rate stronger than Serbia (1,591 vs 1,303 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Belgium won 1 and Serbia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 86%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Serbia is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Serbia: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

0.1: P Nedeljkovic to A Raza, A Raza out. Serbia up from 14% to 22%.
2.6: P Nedeljkovic to Aziz Mohammad, Aziz Mohammad out. Serbia up from 13% to 20%.
6.4: V Zimonjic to Sheraz Sheikh, Sheraz Sheikh out. Serbia up from 25% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium171/8 Serbia107/10

Innings 1

Belgium

171/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Belgium batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Razacaught · Luka Woods · P Nedeljkovic 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Luka Woods · b P Nedeljkovic	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aziz Mohammadcaught and bowled · P Nedeljkovic 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b P Nedeljkovic	7	5	1	0	140.00
Omid Mailk Khelcaught · ML Kostic · WAE Burton 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · ML Kostic · b WAE Burton	39	44	4	0	88.64
Sheraz Sheikhcaught · ML Kostic · V Zimonjic 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · ML Kostic · b V Zimonjic	3	9	0	0	33.33
Shaheryar Buttcaught · MV Pavlovic · P Nedeljkovic 3 fours · 4 sixes	caught · MV Pavlovic · b P Nedeljkovic	50	36	3	4	138.89

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
P Nedeljkovic0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	3	10.25	3	0
MV Pavlovic0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	1	0
V Zimonjic0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	2	1
Luka Woods0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	0	12.00	3	0
M Janicijevic0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	1	0
WAE Burton0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	28	3	9.33	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/1
2	5	14/1
3	10	24/2
4	2	26/2
5	2	28/2
6	5	33/2
7	6	39/3
8	5	44/3
9	12	56/3
10	8	64/3
11	9	73/3
12	14	87/3
13	6	93/3
14	14	107/3
15	4	111/4
16	6	117/4
17	12	129/4
18	21	150/5
19	14	164/7
20	7	171/8

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