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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
10 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Belgium more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Belgium started on 86%; Belgium batted first.
Belgium's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Serbia: 0% to 33%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Woodsbowled · R Thapliyal 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b R Thapliyal | 26 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 104.00 |
| BM Peciccaught and bowled · Sajad Ahmadzai 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sajad Ahmadzai | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| A Dizijabowled · R Thapliyal 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Thapliyal | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
| LA Dunbarrun out · A Raza, B Niaz · Aziz Mohammad 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Raza, B Niaz | 19 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 63.33 |
| ML Kosticbowled · Saber Zakhil 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saber Zakhil | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
| WAE Burtoncaught · B Niaz · Sheraz Sheikh0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · B Niaz · b Sheraz Sheikh |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| MV Pavlovicbowled · Khalid Ahmadi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khalid Ahmadi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| V Zimonjicbowled · Zaki Ul Hassan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zaki Ul Hassan | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| P Nedeljkovicbowled · Khalid Ahmadi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khalid Ahmadi | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| M Janicijevicnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| S Tosiclbw · Khalid Ahmadi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Khalid Ahmadi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Thapliyal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sajad Ahmadzai0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 8 | 0 |
| Zaki Ul Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Saber Zakhil0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Sheraz Sheikh0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Aziz Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (BM Pecic, 1.5) · 2-38 (A Dizija, 6.3) · 3-45 (Luka Woods, 8.4) · 4-57 (ML Kostic, 11.2) · 5-65 (WAE Burton, 12.4) · 6-66 (MV Pavlovic, 13.3) · 7-95 (V Zimonjic, 17.5) · 8-105 (LA Dunbar, 18.5) · 9-107 (P Nedeljkovic, 19.3) · 10-107 (S Tosic, 19.4)
Recorded target: 172 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 37/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 47/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 55/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 63/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 65/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 69/6 |
| 15 | 11 | 80/6 |
| 16 | 7 | 87/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 90/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 97/7 |
| 19 | 9 | 106/8 |
| 20 | 1 | 107/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.