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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
9 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 50%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtbowled · Dewmi Vihanga3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dewmi Vihanga | 33 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 84.62 |
| Tazmin Britscaught · Hasini Perera · Dewmi Vihanga 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasini Perera · b Dewmi Vihanga | 38 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 79.17 |
| Lara Goodallcaught · Hasini Perera · Dewmi Vihanga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasini Perera · b Dewmi Vihanga | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Miané Smitcaught · Manudi Nanayakkara · Dewmi Vihanga 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Manudi Nanayakkara · b Dewmi Vihanga | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
| Nondumiso Shangaselbw · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes |
South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 18 |
| 34 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 52.94 |
| Sinalo Jaftabowled · Dewmi Vihanga 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dewmi Vihanga | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Harshitha Madavi · Manudi Nanayakkara 9 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Manudi Nanayakkara | 104 | 84 | 9 | 5 | 123.81 |
|---|
 Chloe Tryonstumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Chamari Atapattu4 fours · 5 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Chamari Atapattu | 74 | 51 | 4 | 5 | 145.10 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerknot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 32* | 19 | 1 | 2 | 168.42 |
|---|
| Seshnie Naidurun out · Harshitha Madavi, Sugandika Kumari · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harshitha Madavi, Sugandika Kumari | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ayabonga Khakanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 8.43 | 2 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 5.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 43 | 5 | 4.78 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Manudi Nanayakkara0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 10.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-68 (Tazmin Brits, 13.4) · 2-72 (Laura Wolvaardt, 15.1) · 3-82 (Miané Smit, 17.3) · 4-85 (Lara Goodall, 19.1) · 5-85 (Sinalo Jafta, 19.3) · 6-127 (Nondumiso Shangase, 29.0) · 7-239 (Annerie Dercksen, 43.4) · 8-305 (Chloe Tryon, 48.4) · 9-314 (Seshnie Naidu, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 35/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 46/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 53/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 59/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 61/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 65/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 68/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 89/5 |
| 21 | 5 | 94/5 |
| 22 | 6 | 100/5 |
| 23 | 7 | 107/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 110/5 |
| 25 | 3 | 113/5 |
| 26 | 6 | 119/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 120/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 122/5 |
| 29 | 5 | 127/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 130/6 |
| 31 | 12 | 142/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 145/6 |
| 33 | 8 | 153/6 |
| 34 | 5 | 158/6 |
| 35 | 13 | 171/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 175/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 184/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 187/6 |
| 39 | 12 | 199/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 201/6 |
| 41 | 8 | 209/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 221/6 |
| 43 | 13 | 234/6 |
| 44 | 9 | 243/7 |
| 45 | 9 | 252/7 |
| 46 | 9 | 261/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 270/7 |
| 48 | 17 | 287/7 |
| 49 | 18 | 305/8 |
| 50 | 10 | 315/9 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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