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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
21 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 52%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingenbowled · Rohit Kumar 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rohit Kumar | 51 | 79 | 4 | 0 | 64.56 |
| A Busing-Volschenkcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Nandan Yadav | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 9.52 |
| Jan Frylincknot out 8 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 77* | 89 | 8 | 1 | 86.52 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 39 | 0 | 0 | 43.59 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD |
|---|
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Namibia: 47% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| NB |
|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 2 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2.88 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.40 | 3 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.4 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 3.53 | 3 | 0 |
1-21 (A Busing-Volschenk, 6.5) · 2-108 (Michael van Lingen, 26.3)
Recorded target: 158 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 30/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 51/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 62/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 64/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 65/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 71/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 72/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 75/1 |
| 20 | 0 | 75/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 78/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 81/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 89/1 |
| 24 | 10 | 99/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 107/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 108/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 111/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 113/2 |
| 29 | 2 | 115/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 120/2 |
| 31 | 1 | 121/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 130/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 133/2 |
| 34 | 2 | 135/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 141/2 |
| 36 | 10 | 151/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 153/2 |
| 38 | 6 | 159/2 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
