BangladeshversusNepal

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 21 runs

Bangladesh19.3 overs106/10 Nepal19.2 overs85/10 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

67%Bangladesh33%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Nepal (1,592 vs 1,508 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 1 and Nepal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 65%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: Mustafizur Rahman to Aasif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh out. Bangladesh up from 38% to 62%.
2nd inns 6.6: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to S Jora, S Jora out. Bangladesh up from 59% to 88%.
2nd inns 17.1: Taskin Ahmed to DS Airee, six by DS Airee. Nepal up from 33% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh106/10 Nepal85/10

Innings 2

Nepal

85/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	4	8	1	0	50.00
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Shakib Al Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shakib Al Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman	17	14	4	0	121.43
Anil Sahcaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	0	2	0	0	0.00
Rohit Kumarcaught · Rishad Hossain · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	1	6	0	0	16.67

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Tanzim Hasan Sakib2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	7	4	1.75	1
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	1	7.25	1
Mustafizur Rahman1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	3	1.75	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	5
Shakib Al Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.2	0	9	2	3.86	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	15	0	7.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/0
3	0	9/2
4	11	20/2
5	0	20/3
6	4	24/4
7	2	26/5
8	8	34/5
9	6	40/5
10	2	42/5
11	5	47/5
12	3	50/5
13	4	54/5
14	7	61/5
15	4	65/5
16	12	77/5
17	1	78/6
18	7	85/7
19	0	85/8
20	0	85/10

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