NetherlandsversusGermany

23 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 202 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs255/3 Germany17.2 overs53/10 Hazelaarweg, Rotterdam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

85%Netherlands15%Germany

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Germany (1,643 vs 1,454 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 2 and Germany won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 83%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Germany is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Germany: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

1.1: A Kanukuntla to P Molkenboer, four by P Molkenboer. Netherlands up from 82% to 85%.
1.3: A Kanukuntla to P Molkenboer, four by P Molkenboer. Netherlands up from 85% to 87%.
4.5: A Kohli to HDJ Siegers, four by HDJ Siegers. Netherlands up from 92% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands255/3 Germany53/10

Innings 2

Germany

53/1017.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Germany batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
W Hornero-Garciabowled · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Iris Zwilling	0	8	0	0	0.00
Karthika Vijayaraghavanbowled · Hannah Landheer 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hannah Landheer	7	31	0	0	22.58
S Kolcharamlbw · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Iris Zwilling	0	2	0	0	0.00
N Kingsleybowled · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Iris Zwilling	0	3	0	0	0.00
A Kanukuntlabowled · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Caroline de Lange	3	9	0	0	33.33
Rameesha Shahid

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	3	2.00	4
Robine Rijke0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	3
Heather Siegers1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	0	0.00	0
Caroline de Lange1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	4	2	1.00	1
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	0	16	2	4.80	1
S Khurana0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	5
Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	2	2.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	3	3/0
3	2	5/2
4	0	5/2
5	8	13/3
6	4	17/3
7	1	18/4
8	6	24/4
9	2	26/4
10	8	34/4
11	2	36/5
12	2	38/7
13	8	46/7
14	3	49/7
15	0	49/8
16	1	50/9
17	1	51/9
18	2	53/10

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