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Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2026 · Men
11 Aug 2026 · T20
Malawi more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 65%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Zambia: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Limdawalacaught · Muhammad Asim (2) · R Lungu 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Muhammad Asim (2) · b R Lungu | 45 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 125.00 |
| SZ Vayanicaught · Shadreck Malama · Javid Patel 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shadreck Malama · b Javid Patel | 30 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 214.29 |
| Sami Sohaillbw · Joshep Zulu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Joshep Zulu | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Salim Patelcaught · Jakir Patel · Joshep Zulu 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jakir Patel · b Joshep Zulu | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| SY Nihutecaught · Ayaz Dadabhai · R Lungu 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ayaz Dadabhai · b R Lungu | 20 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
| not out |
| 19* |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 90.48 |
| Matthew Mountbowled · Ayaz Dadabhai 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
|---|
| M Choambacaught · Ayaz Dadabhai · Ismail Kara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ayaz Dadabhai · b Ismail Kara | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Daniel Jackielbowled · Ismail Kara 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ismail Kara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| B Pondanirun out · Ismail Kara · Ismail Kara 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ismail Kara | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| K Thuchilanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismail Kara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 7 | 0 |
| Joshep Zulu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Javid Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 13.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakir Husain Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Lungu0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-55 (SZ Vayani, 4.5) · 2-57 (Sami Sohail, 5.1) · 3-61 (Salim Patel, 5.5) · 4-100 (A Limdawala, 11.4) · 5-116 (SY Nihute, 15.2) · 6-130 (Matthew Mount, 16.4) · 7-131 (M Choamba, 17.1) · 8-131 (Daniel Jackiel, 17.2) · 9-144 (B Pondani, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 35/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 44/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 57/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 7 | 13 | 74/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 82/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 89/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 95/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 101/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 107/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 115/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 123/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 131/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 135/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 139/8 |
| 20 | 12 | 151/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.