ZimbabweversusBangladesh

5 May 2024 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 6 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs138/7 Bangladesh18.3 overs142/4 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

39%Zimbabwe61%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,579 vs 1,567 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 37%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Bangladesh: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: Taskin Ahmed to T Marumani, T Marumani out. Bangladesh up from 67% to 75%.
2nd inns 11.6: LM Jongwe to Jaker Ali, six by Jaker Ali. Bangladesh up from 74% to 84%.
2nd inns 16.3: LM Jongwe to Towhid Hridoy, six by Towhid Hridoy. Bangladesh up from 83% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe138/7 Bangladesh142/4

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

138/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joylord Gumbiecaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Mohammad Saifuddin 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Mohammad Saifuddin	17	30	1	0	56.67
Tadiwanashe Marumanilbw · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Taskin Ahmed	2	4	0	0	50.00
Craig Ervinecaught · Litton Das · Mahedi Hasan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Mahedi Hasan	13	16	1	0	81.25
Sikandar Razacaught · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain	3	8	0	0	37.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	1
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/0
3	4	7/0
4	8	15/1
5	3	18/1
6	4	22/1
7	8	30/1
8	2	32/2
9	4	36/2
10	2	38/4
11	7	45/5
12	9	54/5
13	12	66/5
14	7	73/5
15	8	81/5
16	14	95/5
17	13	108/5
18	9	117/6
19	3	120/7
20	18	138/7

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