Texas Super KingsversusMI New York

14 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Texas Super Kings won by 15 runs

Texas Super Kings20.0 overs176/6 MI New York20.0 overs161/7 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Texas Super Kings started on 45%; Texas Super Kings batted first.

Texas Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Texas Super Kings's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (MI New York: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: MP Stoinis to R Clinton, R Clinton out. Texas Super Kings up from 65% to 74%.
2nd inns 2.6: Zia-ul-Haq to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Texas Super Kings up from 77% to 86%.
2nd inns 3.5: MP Stoinis to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Texas Super Kings up from 82% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.